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probable cause to search an area demands that there be a certain quantum of likelihood that: (1) something that is properly subject to seizure by the government, i.e., contraband or fruits, instrumentalities, or evidence of a crime, (2) is presently (3) in the specific place to be searched.

Probable cause does not require certainty, but only a sufficeitne likelihood.  Consequently, a showing of probably cause is not undermined if the conclusions drawn turn out, in fact, to have been mistaken